I’d like to start by acknowledging how Buffalo was beat by Bowling Green last night.  Turner Gill’s Bulls were driving the ball at will at the end of the first half and I guess he forgot about those thing that they give you 3 of each half.  They can be used to stop the clock, get organized or give your team a breather. 

Turner,
their called timeouts!!!  Anyway instead of using them, he was content to let the clock run out and sit on an 8 point lead.  BG warriors turn it around and win by 1. 
Turner,
your better than that. 

Now on to what I’ll be watching this weekend.  This being the weekend of the Big A tailgate spectacle we will have a Big 10 focus live from Happy Valley, but we won’t forget the games that really matter.  Penn State- Ohio State Breakdown coming later this week.

11:00 Northwestern at #4 Iowa, ESPN
What can you say?  Someone apparently has been putting their pennies in the karma bank.  Iowa should have at least two losses on the season but they’ve somehow pulled them out and are undefeated.  I think I’ve located Sooner magic and it resides in Iowa.  The Wildcats can expect their 49th ranked rushing D to get a steady dose of Wegher.  Iowa’s edge is their defense which is still ranked 13th in the country allowing 15 ppg.  Iowa’s not they great, but this team is an example of balance and defense being better than high power, “first team to 50 wins” offense. 

Pick:  Vegas is saying Iowa wins by 17, but my formula says 10.  I’m taking the road dogs and the points.

2:30 #9 LSU at #3 Alabama, CBS
Ho hum.  Just another game in Tuscaloosa.  New coach vs former coach.  #9 vs #3.  Yaaaaaawwwnnn,  If it weren’t for defense (#7 Scoring D, #8 Turnover Margin) LSU would have no offense at all.  On the flip side, if it weren’t for Mark Ingram (5th ranked rusher avg 125 ypg) Bama would still have an offense (33rd total offense) and a really good D (5th scoring D, 17th turnover margin).  LSU’s hope is to make Bama one dimensional on offense and force them to pass on their 19th ranked pass efficiency D.  The Tide need to limit mistakes and wear the Bayou Bengals defense down with some long pounding drives followed up by play action. 

Pick:  The Tide is giving up 8 points.   The q-culator is telling me 6.5 Once again, I’m going to have to take the road dog and the points.

7:00 #24 Oklahoma at Nebraska, ABC
Whoa Nellie!  Dust the moth balls off of Keith “not the real” Jackson.  The Sooners take their 8th ranked Scoring D on the road where they are 1-3 this year to face Nebraska and their 4th ranked scoring D.  Sooners are 30th in total offense and that may be just enough to do it.  Don’t expect the Sooners to jump to a 28-0 lead in the first 5 minutes like they did last year.  Since 2001 OU is 6-6 in games decided by less than 7 points while the Huskers are 7-9.  Both teams are struggling for that Magic (see NW vs Iowa above).  In the words of that great philosopher of our time Al Davis, “Just win baby!”

Pick: Vegas has the Sooners by 6.  Turnover margin makes a difference and the Q-culator says Sooners by 9, but I have seen my Sooners snatch defeat from the jaws of victory 3 times this year.