We made it!!!  10 months until middle-aged, jort wearing bald guys are again fawning over and wringing hands about the decisions of 18 year old kids and where they are going to school.  There are those who think that recruiting has "nothing" to do with what happens at the end of next year and who is playing for the BCS championship.  I "used to" be in that group until a little research. 

Using the Rivals.com rankings for the prior 4 years' recruiting classes for the 5 national champions, I established hte following trends:
- All but 1 (Texas), had an average recruiting class ranking of under 10 for the four prior years
- 4 of the 5 preceded their National championship season with top 10 recruiting classes
- and all 5 preceded their national championship season with a top 5 recruiting class


The 2009 Top 10 recruiting classes according to Rivals were:
1.  Alabama
2. LSU
3.  Ohio State
4.  USC
5. Texas
6.  Georgia
7.  Florida State
8. Michigan
9. North Carolina
10.  Tennessee

The 2010 Top 5 were:
1.USC
2. Florida
3.  Texas
4.  Auburn
5.  Alabama

So there you go.  If you are going to Vegas, the numbers tell you to put your money on the Tide, Trojans or shorthorns.  Just make sure that you wash yourself after pulling for those last two. 

        

The Valero Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs Texas Tech, ESPN, 8:00


You just have to wonder what will have the bigger impact on a team, losing a head coach and all the turmoil surrounding it or having 11 teammates suspended before the game.  Ruffin McNeill, The nutty professor leads the Sand Aggies into this game.  Michigan State is 96th in the country in pass efficiency D and Texas Tech is #2 passing offense.  Any questions?  Regardless of Mike Leach being gone, first one to 50 wins and that's the Sand Aggies. There's a reason they call it a "system."

Pick: Texas Tech is favored by 8.  I'm picking the home team to cover.

        

International Bowl, ESPN2, 11:00
South Florida Bulls vs Northern Illinois Huskies

Jim Leavitt is hoping that since he's at the who cares bowl, it will be okay to manhandle his players.  Huskies have the 17th ranked rushing O in the country and the 109th passing offense.  Huskie Running Back Chad Spann is the 52nd ranked rusher in the nation.  South Florida is 51st in rushing D.  When the bulls are on O it's the BJ Daniels show.

Pick: South Florida is favored by 7.  I'm taking them to cover.

Papajohns.com Bowl, ESPN, 1:00
South Carolina vs Connecticut

The mediocrity bowl pits a pretty sad South Carolina team led by Stephen Garcia who never managed to step up and be the leader that he was expected to be.  UConn's front four will spend some time putting the spaniard on his back led by Lindsey Witten and Lawrence Wilson, 7th in sacks and fourth in tackles respectively.  The UConn tragedy and feel good story will be oozing at us from all directions but they won't be enough for an SEC team, even a bad one.

Pick: The Cocks are favored by 4.  The best player is the kicker.  So I'm taking the Cocks to cover.

AT&T Cotton Bowl, Fox, 1:00
Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss

And of course in  the "can't handle the pre-season hype" bowl you have the Pokes vs the Rebels.  The pokes are playing for their first 10 win season.  Ole Miss is led by Jevan "I had to leave Texas to become a starter" Snead who has thrown as many interceptions as anyone in the country.  When he's not throwing picks, he's handing the ball off to Dexter McCluster who is 53rd in the country for all purpose yards.  Look for the running game to be tested by the Poke's 6th ranked rushing D.  Lots of balls up for grabs for the Pokes to pick.  Expect Patrick Lavine and Perish Cox (20th and 37th in INT's) to have banner days. 

When the Pokes have the ball, Russell Okung will be anchoring the O line for the 24th ranked rushing O and Keith Toston 25th rusher in the country.  The Cowboys should be able to have their way with the Rebels 57th ranked rushing D in the country.  If they load the box, Robinson can burn them through the air.

Pick: Oles Miss is favored by 3.  Turnovers will be the difference in this one and Ole Miss is 105th in that category.  I'm picking the Pokes to cover is if Zac Robinson can avoid doing his "Zac Robinson in a bowl game" imitation from last year.

        

Rose bowl
Ohio State vs Oregon

Ohio State is all about the rushing game on both sides of the ball ranked 19th in rushing O, 5th in rushing D and an impressive 7th in pass efficiency D.  The Ducks come in with the 6th ranked rushing offense and 33rd in total D. 

Pick: Ducks are favored by 5.  I think the Buckeyes are more balanced than they get credit for.  I'll take them and the points.

        

Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs Auburn, 10:00 ESPN

In another SEC vs Big 10 match up, the Wildcats will try to salvage the reputation of the conference and their post season play.  They have not won a Bowl Game since 1949.  Watch for Auburn's Chris Todd to steal the show picking apart Northwestern's pass defense.  When that gets going they'll give the rock to Ben Tate and rely on their 13th ranked rushing O to take it to Northwestern. When Northwestern has the ball, they'll rely on the pass since their rushing O is a sad 93rd in the country.  Expect Auburn's Antonio Coleman (24th in sacks and tfl's) to abuse the Northwestern O line that is 88th in sacks allowed.

Pick: The line is Auburn by 9.  I'll take the tigers to cover in another cat fight. 

Gator Bowl 
West Virginia vs Florida State, 12:00 CBS

Love him or hate him, Bobby Bowden has left his legacy on college football dadgum.  After 44 years as a head coach, it ends today.  Emotions are going to be high for the FSU as they take on a Mountaineer squad that is on a four game bowl winning streak.  When the Noles have the ball look for Christian ponder (3rd in total offense) to air it out to Reed and Owens.  Of course the Mountaineers secondary is no slouch with Robert Sands and Keith Tandy, 20th and 90th in interceptions.  The Mountaineers will look to run the ball with Noel Divine (20th in rushing) against the Noles 108th ranked rushing O.

Pick: West Virginia by 3 is what Vegas says.  Sorry Bobby.  Mountaineers win big and cover.

Capital One Bowl
#13 Penn State vs#12  LSU, noon ABC

LSU will rely on their 12th ranked scoring defense to try to shut down a pretty balanced Penn State attack.  Darryl Clark is 35th in total offense as a QB and Evan Royster is 34th in rushing so this will be a battle of strength on strength when Penn State has the ball.  When LSU has it Jordan Jefferson can air it out some but the Tigers will be in the hurt locker if Charles Scott can't go and Penn State will be be camping out in the LSU backfield. 

Pick:  Vegas says even so I'm going with LSU's D to be better than Penn State's O in another SEC vs Big 10 match up.

        

Insight Bowl, Tempe, Az
Minnesota vs Iowa State, 5:00 NFL Network

Last time Iowa State beat Minnesota was 1898.

When Minnesota is on offense, their awfulness (113th in total offense) is only closely matched by the Cyclones suckage on defense (99th in total defense).  The only bright point in this game is Iowa State's Alexander Robinson and Jesse Smith, 27th rusher and 11th tackler in the country respectively.  Cyclones have the 36th ranked rushing O and that will be the difference. 


Pick: Golden Gophers are favored by 2.  You heard it here first.  The century old streak is broken by the Cyclones. 

Chik Fil A Bowl, Atlanta, GA
#11 Virginia Tech vs Tennessee, 6:30, ESPN

Hokies have the 15th ranked rushing O behind Ryan Williams.  In the air, it's Tyrod Taylor throwing to Boykin.  Might be a little tough since the Vols have the 8th ranked pass efficiency D in the country  Vols have Montario Hardesty, 19th ranked rusher in the country who will be pounding on the Hokies' 14th ranked defense. 

Pick: Hokies are favored by 6.  I'll take the Hokies to cover.

Sorry Vols.

        

Texas Bowl
Navy vs Missouri, 2:30 ESPN

Fourth ranked Navy rushing offense vs 12th ranked rushing D of Mizzou.  Tigers 12th ranked passing D vs Navy's 52nd ranked pass efficiency D.  Watch for Danario Alexander (#1 ranked in receiving yards) for the Tigers wear out Navy's passing D.  Watch for Navy's awesome QB Ricky Dobbs show why he is #2 in scoring in the country running that modified option of Navy.

Pick:  Missouri is favored by 7.  I'm picking the Tigers to cover through the air.  Go Sailors!

        

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, Houston vs Air Force, ESPN 11:00

This amounts to a home game for the Cougars.   It's also a rematch from last year's bowl game where Houston came out ahead.   It's the #1 passing offense of Houston vs the #1 pass defense of Air Force.  And the #3 rushing O of Air Force vs the 111th ranked rushing D of Houston.  First team to 50 wins.  Players to watch are Case Keenum (#1 passer in the country), James Cleveland (#2 Receiver in the country) and Marcus McGraw flying all over the field on D.  There's not a play McGraw isn't in on the tackle or close. 

Pick: Vegas says Houston by 5.  I'm thinking Houston in a home game, Case on the case covers.


Brut Sun Bowl, #19 Stanford vs Oklahoma, CBS, 1:00
Stanford vs Oklahoma

This could also be called the confusing mascot bowl. The Sooners have the horse pigs and Stanford is a Cardinal Tree or something like that.  Hopefully all of the "Bob Stoops going to Texas Tech" chatter doesn't distract anyone. 

When the Cardinal trees have the ball, look for them to saddle up on Toby Gerhardt and prove why they have the 11th ranked rushing O in the country.  They'll be able to mix it up a little if Andrew Luck actually comes back for the game.  He's the 25th ranked passer in the country.  The Sooners are bringing in the 7th ranked rushing D and 9th ranked pass efficiency D in the country.  The Sooner D is 4th in sacks and 8th in TFL's behind Jeremy Beal and Gerald McCoy so this will be the game is won or lost.

When the Sooners have the rock, there's a chance of establishing the run with the 69th ranked rushing O against an equally mediocre rushing D.  Landry Jones might be be able to complete some passes to Broyles against Stanford's 95th ranked pass efficiency D. 

Pick:  Vegas says Oklahoma by 10.  Sooner D is too balanced for the reds.  I'll take the Sooners to cover (surprise).

Having never seen their mascot, I googled Houston Cougar and here's what I got...

        

Breaking down the bowls: #15 Holiday Bowl #20 Arizona vs #22 Nebraska

It’s Pelini vs Stoops in the Youngstown Bowl.

Both defenses are pretty good but the nod has to go to the bruising blackshirts. They are single digits in almost every statistical category. As far as offense goes, Nebraska’s is quite offensive and stinks it up while Arizona’s is pretty balanced and not nearly as awful. The real battle will be Arizona’s O line rated ninth in sacks allowed battling Suh and Dillard for the Huskers. If Arizona has enough time to make the plays, they win.

Pick: Vegas says Nebraska by 3. I’m taking Nebraska to cover.

        

Keeping the streak alive, It’s #14 the Humanitarian bowl with Idaho and Bowling Green.

Idaho has the 11th ranked passing offense on the arm of Nathan Enderle and no defense to speak of. Bowling Green has the 8th ranked passing offense, Tyler Sheehan and Freddy Barnes with not much D to speak of.

Pick: Vegas says it’s a wash so I’m taking the warriors to be a little more explosive than the Vandals in the cold to win.